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FORECASTER WORKLOAD AND TASK ANALYSIS IN THE 2016 PROBABILISTIC HAZARD INFORMATION SYSTEM HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED
James, Joseph J

2018, Master of Science in Engineering, University of Akron, Mechanical Engineering.
During spring 2016, a Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) was run to improve the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) prototype, as part of the FACETS (Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental ThreatS) program. Each week of the 3-week testbed, three National Weather Service forecasters were trained on the PHI prototype tool to produce dynamic, probabilistic hazard information for severe weather threats. Archived and real-time weather scenarios were used to test this new paradigm. The forecasters’ mental workload was evaluated after each scenario using the NASA-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) questionnaire. Forecaster screen recordings were also compiled to complete task analysis on forecaster interaction with the tool. This study summarizes the trends in mental workload experienced by forecasters while using the PHI prototype system. Six sub dimensions of mental workload, mental demand, physical demand, temporal demand, performance, effort and frustration were analyzed separately to derive top contributing factors to workload. The average mental workload was 46.6 (out of 100, std: 19, range 70.8). Top contributing workload factors include using automated guidance, PHI object quantity, multiple displays and formulating probabilities in the new paradigm. Task analysis found a significant increase in time to produce PHI objects from previous years. Tornado objects took specifically more time to produce. The paradigm change from deterministic to probabilistic forecast created opportunities for forecasters to communicate continuous, dynamic information. This challenged forecasters to constantly interrogate storm development and predict threat development over time.
Chen Ling, PhD (Advisor)
Shenyong Wang, PhD (Committee Member)
Sergio Felicelli, PhD (Committee Chair)
80 p.

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James, J. (2018). FORECASTER WORKLOAD AND TASK ANALYSIS IN THE 2016 PROBABILISTIC HAZARD INFORMATION SYSTEM HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED. (Electronic Thesis or Dissertation). Retrieved from https://etd.ohiolink.edu/

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James, Joseph. "FORECASTER WORKLOAD AND TASK ANALYSIS IN THE 2016 PROBABILISTIC HAZARD INFORMATION SYSTEM HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED." Electronic Thesis or Dissertation. University of Akron, 2018. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. 19 Sep 2018.

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James, Joseph "FORECASTER WORKLOAD AND TASK ANALYSIS IN THE 2016 PROBABILISTIC HAZARD INFORMATION SYSTEM HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED." Electronic Thesis or Dissertation. University of Akron, 2018. https://etd.ohiolink.edu/

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