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Interregional Commodity and Virtual Water Trade: Impact of Changing Climate and Water Supply
Guliani, Manraj

2015, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, City and Regional Planning.
Climate change impacts on water availability and virtual water flows have been analyzed for the 51 U.S. states, using the interregional commodity flows data provided by the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS). The missing data points in the CFS have been estimated using optimization techniques and the available information from the three CFS datasets (value, ton and ton-miles) and three survey years (1997-2007), leading to estimated delivered prices and target values. The interregional commodity trades have then been converted to virtual water trades by using water input coefficients derived from the literature.

In departure from earlier studies, a commmodity transportation model is developed for the horizon year of 2060 to simulate the impact of climate change on virtual water trades. The most recent CFS of 2007 is used as the base year to project population growth and the resulting commodity demand in 2060. Growth in commodity demands is then used to project commodity production capacities of states. Commodity flows economic costs are also accounted for by estimating delivered goods unit costs for as many origin-destination pairs as possible. Also, target state-to-state commodity flows have been simulated for 2060, using 2007 commodity flows.

To study the impact of climate change, projections for water availablity by state are developed under a benchmark (BM) case and three economic growth scenarios: A2-high emissions, B1-low emissions, and A1B-moderate emissions. The research approach adapts the methodology and information presented by Roy et al. (2012) and regional climate change predictions for the U.S. developed by NOAA. A water stress ranking system is developed which is used to assess the impact of changing water availablity under the different climate scenarios.

The results show that several states in the Great Plains would become severely water stressed under the climate change scenarios, as compared to the benchmark (BM) case, particularly North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas, primarily because of large reductions in water availability. Despite belonging to the Great Plains region, Montana and Wyoming display trends of reduced water stress. A clear east-west difference is also observed. In constrast to earlier studies, eastern states are expected to become more water stressed while western states are expected to reduce their water stress by the horizon year under the climate change scenarios. Commodity production is also impacted by water availability, with the highest impact on agricultural products (Com03) due to their high water requirement for production. The water stressed states show a significant decline in the production of Com03, with the highest impact found under the A2 scenario.
Jean-Michel Guldmann (Advisor)
292 p.

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Guliani, M. (2015). Interregional Commodity and Virtual Water Trade: Impact of Changing Climate and Water Supply . (Electronic Thesis or Dissertation). Retrieved from https://etd.ohiolink.edu/

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Guliani, Manraj. "Interregional Commodity and Virtual Water Trade: Impact of Changing Climate and Water Supply ." Electronic Thesis or Dissertation. Ohio State University, 2015. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. 23 Oct 2017.

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Guliani, Manraj "Interregional Commodity and Virtual Water Trade: Impact of Changing Climate and Water Supply ." Electronic Thesis or Dissertation. Ohio State University, 2015. https://etd.ohiolink.edu/

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