PHD, Kent State University, 2014, College of Arts and Sciences / Department of Geography
Structured into three, interrelated projects, this dissertation is organized under the research themes of climate change and human mortality responses associated with heat and cold events. Using diverse, methodologies which incorporate spatiotemporal variability into seasonal definitions, consistent results were found pertaining to seasonal climate change. Climatological data for 60 U.S. locations was chosen for a lengthy period of record (1948 – 2012), and despite the various delineation methods, results generally indicate earlier starts to summer while winters have become shorter. Using percentile thresholds of daily mean apparent temperature, heat, extreme heat, cold, and extreme cold events (anomalous temperature events or ATEs) were defined and analyzed. In addition to increased frequency and duration, heat and extreme heat events have started earlier over the course of the year since 1948. Conversely, cold and extreme cold have shown the opposite with less frequent, shorter, and later occurring events taking place. While not directly explored, a relationship with ATEs and large-scale teleconnection patterns such as El Nino seems to exist. In bioclimatological research, human health responses have been associated with duration, intensity, and seasonal timing. When comparing mortality responses, a relatively unexplored method in climatology was introduced. More common in epidemiological research, a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) assessed the delayed, non-linear responses associated with environmental outcomes. In regards to both heat and cold events, greater risk was associated with early season events compared to later occurring ones. Elevated thresholds of extreme heat and extreme cold showed higher risks when compared to less extreme events. Geographic variability was also shown with higher risks for heat-related mortality in more northern locations while cold-related risks were higher in locations less accustomed to heat. Comparing mor (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Scott Sheridan (Advisor); Tom Schmidlin (Committee Member); Andrew Curtis (Committee Member); Lynette Phillips (Committee Member); Ellen Glickman (Committee Member)
Subjects: Climate Change; Geography; Public Health