Master of Science (MS), Ohio University, 2013, Civil Engineering (Engineering and Technology)
In this thesis, road safety assessment and prediction modeling for U.S. states fatal crashes are addressed. In the first part, a DEA-based Malmquist Index model was developed to assess the relative efficiency and productivity of U.S. states in decreasing the number of road fatalities. Even though the national trend in fatal crashes has reached to the lowest level since 1949 (Traffic Safety Annual Assessment Highlights, 2010), a state-by-state analysis and comparison has not been studied considering other characteristics of the holistic national road safety assessment problem in any work in the literature or organizational reports. The single output, fatal crashes, and five inputs were aggregated into single road safety score and utilized in the DEA-based Malmquist Index mathematical model. The period of 2002-2008 was considered due to data availability for the inputs and the output considered. According to the results, there is a slight negative productivity (an average of -0.2 percent productivity) observed in the U.S. on minimizing the number of fatal crashes along with an average of 2.1 percent efficiency decline and 1.8 percent technological improvement. The productivity in reducing the fatal crashes can only be attributed to the technological growth since there is a negative efficiency growth is occurred. It can be concluded that even though there is a declining trend observed in the fatality rates, the efficiency of states in utilizing societal and economical resources towards the goal of zero fatality is not still efficient.
In the second part, a nonparametric prediction model, Artificial Neural Network, was developed to assist policy makers in minimizing fatal crashes across the United States. Seven input variables from four safety performance input domains while fatal crashes was utilized as the single output variable for the scope of the research. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) was utilized and the best neural network model was developed out of 1000 n (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Deborah McAvoy Ph.D. (Advisor); Byung-Cheol Kim Ph.D. (Committee Member); Ken Walsh Ph.D. (Committee Member); M. Khurrum S. Bhutta Ph.D. (Committee Member)
Subjects: Civil Engineering; Industrial Engineering; Transportation