Master of Science, The Ohio State University, 2021, Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology
The modern extinction crisis, following its current trajectory, is irreparably damaging the planet's biodiversity and has severe cascading effects on the environment and ecosystem processes. This is particularly true for plant species extinction, considering the vital role of plants as foundational species within many ecosystems. Despite this, conservation efforts are often focused upon charismatic megafauna; anthropomorphized animal species of cultural or social importance. Plant species, which are central to life on this planet, receive disproportionately less legal protection, conservation focus, and funding. It is therefore critical that formal extinction assessments be applied, and threats identified and mitigated, to avert mass plant extinction. This thesis presents two methods of plant conservation assessment along with administrative assessment and policy recommendations.
Chapter 1 presents a machine-learning approach to assess extinction risk for plant species in Utah. Utilizing random forest classification, a supervised ensemble learning technique, two classifiers were built using geographic, climatic, anthropogenic, and administrative data. The second classifier, which incorporated both anthropogenic and ecological variables achieved 93.65% accuracy in comparison to the first classifier, which considered only anthropogenic variables and achieved a 62.79% accuracy. The second classifier was employed to assess the vulnerability status of 4,338 species based upon government classification. Seventy-eight species were identified to be at least 90% likely to be classified as a species of concern. Further, geographic patterns of vulnerability revealed the Colorado Plateau ecoregion to be particularly vulnerable.
Across all predictor variables, endemism was identified as the most critical, with climatic variables measuring trends in temperature and precipitation subsequently important. A stakeholder analysis was then conducted to untangle the administrative (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Andrea Wolfe (Advisor); Bryan Carstens (Committee Member); Chris Rea (Committee Member)
Subjects: Biology; Botany