Doctor of Philosophy, The Ohio State University, 2020, Agricultural, Environmental and Developmental Economics
There are many causes of conflict: religious, ideological, political, and economic. In this dissertation, I focus on a subset of the economic factors that can instigate conflicts, such as water scarcity and food insecurity, and those that can mitigate it, like trade liberalization or adding a trade component to peace agreements.
In the first essay, I examine the relationship between water scarcity and interstate conflict between upstream and downstream riparian countries. I develop a game-theoretic model that incorporates the river sharing game and a conflict model. I use backward induction to find the probability of either riparian state using force as a function of its scarcity level. I use the complementary log-log model to test the reduced-form probability functions using AQUASTAT water availability data, and the Militarized Interstate Disputes dataset from the Correlates of War Project. I find that water scarcity induces hegemon, downstream countries to initiate conflict against their upstream co-riparian and that a water-scarce upstream country is more likely than a water-abundant upstream country to respond by force.
In the second essay, I examine whether experiencing a drought exacerbates the effect of an increase in staple food prices on urban and rural social unrest in Africa and whether liberalizing trade in staple foods mitigates this effect. I use an instrumental variable model to study the impact on social unrest of a change in domestic food prices while experiencing a drought with and without trade liberalization. I use data on anti-government demonstrations from the Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD) along with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the domestic and international staple food prices from the FAO, and tariff data from UNCTAD. I find that an increase in staple food prices while experiencing drought increases social unrest in urban areas and reduces it in rural areas; liberalizing trade in staple foods (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Ian Sheldon (Advisor); Zoƫ Plakias (Committee Member); Leah Bevis (Committee Member)
Subjects: Agricultural Economics; Environmental Economics