Doctor of Philosophy, The Ohio State University, 2021, Environmental Science
Climate change is threatening food security as it is generally perceived to have negative impacts on agricultural production. Understanding this impact is central to adaptations to reduce potential yield loss. However, yield responses to changes in climate are complicated and have not been well understood. This project aims to characterize yield responses to the changing climate by utilizing modeling approaches, which in turn will help develop decision-supporting tools to inform policy or adaptation strategies.
In this dissertation, we address several questions in modeling the impact of climate change on crop yield. First, in Chapter 2, we reviewed and synthesized current progress and findings from studies in the last 21 years using data-driven approaches. We found that previous studies generally agree that warming will negatively affect crop yields. For example, maize, wheat, soybean, and rice yield could be reduced by 7.5 ± 5.3%, 6.0 ± 3.3%, 6.8 ± 5.9%, and 1.2 ± 5.2% with 1 °C warming. Climate change could account for 37% of yield variability across the world. We also identified challenges and issues in previous studies, and thus developed a Bayesian model framework in Chapter 3 to overcome part of these challenges. The proposed Bayesian model framework was used in Chapter 4 to characterize spatial variations in yield responses to changes in climate variables with response curves. These response curves could help us identify what threats crop yield of a county is facing or will face and inform adaptation strategies to deal with these threats. If without adaptions, projected climate conditions of more than 36 climate models under four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) scenarios would benefit crops in some areas but could also cause severe yield loss in others. These yield changes are location- and scenario-specific. The Henry County in northern Ohio, for example, would have a yield increase of 1.2% and 0.7% under RCP 2.6 and 6.0 (both scenarios ar (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Kaiguang Zhao Dr. (Advisor); Gil Bohrer Dr. (Committee Member); Jay Martin Dr. (Committee Member); Yanlan Liu Dr. (Committee Member)
Subjects: Agricultural Engineering; Agriculture; Climate Change; Ecology; Environmental Science