Master of Science (MS), Ohio University, 2018, Electrical Engineering & Computer Science (Engineering and Technology)
The main objective of this research is to assess the capability, applicability and versatility of Recurrent Neural Networks for the task of blood glucose prediction. We first experimented with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks on a real-patient dataset that has been used in previous research at the SmartHealth lab, and evaluated their performance compared to Support Vector Regression (SVR) models that use elaborate hand-engineered features extracted from raw data, physiological models and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results confirm that a simple LSTM network with only 5 nodes and one hidden layer is able to achieve similar or better performance versus the SVR, on both the time horizons of 30 and 60 minutes. The obtained results are also better than those of a T0 baseline, in which the blood glucose level (BGL) is assumed to stay unchanged, ARIMA, and human experts.
We then evaluated a larger model of 20 nodes on a synthetic dataset called UVA/Padova, which is one of the most realistic simulators for Type I diabetes. Our UVA dataset constitutes 900 days of data from 10 simulated patients. The obtained results confirmed that LSTM networks are much more capable than ARIMA with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) in terms of incorporating sparse signals such as meal and insulin. We also show that only a few architectural changes are needed to adapt LSTM networks between different datasets. Dropout is shown to be one important factor, along with the early-stop threshold.
The last set of experiments were performed on our most recent and best real-patient dataset called OUBasis. The results exhibit previous trends, with LSTMs comfortably beating the baseline T0 and ARIMAX models. We also evaluate the versatility of LSTM networks for seamless incorporation of raw signals obtained from physiological sensors, with results showing that such signals do help performance. Almost no modification was required to the network when new features ar (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Razvan Bunescu (Advisor)
Subjects: Computer Science