MCP, University of Cincinnati, 2005, Design, Architecture, Art and Planning : Community Planning

Population projections are used by various planning agencies to formulate policies and to do other projections such as transportation, economic, and school enrollment projections. There is a large body of literature available on various methods that are used by the planning agencies to project population. Projections based on the most commonly used trend extrapolation, cohort component and ratio models predict that the population of Hamilton County will decline continuously until year 2030. These projected population figures can have serious social and economic implications on the development of Hamilton County. Hamilton County Regional Planning Commission (HCRPC) has recently acquired an Economic Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model from Regional Economic Model Inc., (commonly called the REMI-EDFS model). According to the baseline projections by REMI-EDFS model, Hamilton County's population will decline until the year 2012 and will start increasing after this point. This research is an attempt to explore the internal dynamics of this model, in order to understand the reasons for this population upturn to occur. The equations related to population changes were studied and a flowchart was constructed to depict the affects of demographic and economic variables on total population. The data from baseline projections, done by using REMI-EDFS model, were downloaded and charts were plotted against time (2001-2020). The trends were observed and it was found that economic in-migration will be the main cause for population upturn to occur in 2012 and the reason for economic in-migration will be the relatively high employment opportunity and wage rate of Hamilton County.

Committee: Rainer vom Hofe (Advisor) Subjects:

MCP, University of Cincinnati, 2005, Design, Architecture, Art and Planning : Community Planning

Based on the new standards set by a directive issued by EPA, related to fine particulate matter and Ozone, Hamilton County and surrounding counties in Ohio and Kentucky, fall in the non-attainment category. The new RVP gasoline program is one of the programs proposed by the Clean Air Consortium of Southwest Ohio that reduce pollutant levels responsible for high Ozone concentrations. Even though the introduction of this gasoline will increase the price of gasoline, affecting consumers in terms of increased expenditure and producers in terms of higher cost of doing business in the region, it will also result in a cleaner and healthier environment to live in. An economic impact analysis using an Economic forecasting model developed by Regional Economic Model Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight after assessing the costs and benefits of the program was done to evaluate the program.

Committee: Rainer vom Hofe (Advisor) Subjects: Urban and Regional Planning