Doctor of Philosophy, University of Toledo, 2022, Industrial Engineering
The main objectives of this dissertation are to investigate the effects of arrests and officers on the Great American Crime Decline, estimate short-term and long-term effects of arrests and policing officers on major crimes, and identify the causal directions between crime, arrests, and officers. Statistical and econometric models such as Fixed Effects Poisson Regression, Panel ARDL Estimation and Panel Granger Causality Testing methods are employed. To avoid spurious regression, tests for cross-section dependency, unit roots, slope-homogeneity and co-integration are conducted to identify the best modeling approaches for effect estimation and causality detection.
Data from various sources such as U.S. Census Bureau, F.B.I, Vera Institute of Justice, ICPSR were collected and prepared. In order to carry out a fine-grained analysis, policing agencies are divided into different groups based on population. The dataset for GACD study consisted of 1778 policing agencies from 1990-1999. Arrests of violent, property, disorder, drug sale and possession offenses, and police officers were the predictors while incarceration served as the control variable. For causality study, data on 1553 policing agencies from 1974-2020 was gathered and violent and property arrests, and officers were the independent variables.
Results of the GACD study reveal that across all agencies, drug possession and disorder arrests, and officers had deterrence effect on crime, mostly on property crime. Interestingly, officers had a significant deterrence effect on both violent and property crimes only in very large and large agencies. Also, property crimes started to decline at least 3 years earlier than violent crimes. It can be insightful to further examine this delay to understand if property crimes have any effect on violent crimes. From the second study it was observed that both short-term and long-term significant relationships exist between arrests and crime across all agencies. Granger te (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Matthew Franchetti Dr. (Committee Chair); Ahalapitiya Jayatissa Dr. (Committee Member); Yue Zhang Dr. (Committee Member); Benjamin George Dr. (Committee Member); Alex Spivak Dr. (Committee Member)
Subjects: Criminology; Industrial Engineering; Statistics