Doctor of Philosophy, The Ohio State University, 2011, Statistics
Problems involving discrete data, especially count data, are increasingly common in many important fields, such as cancer mapping and influenza epidemiology. Compared to a large amount of highly developed attractive models for spatio-temporal continuous data (e.g., Cressie and Wikle, 2011), modeling the underlying dynamical process for count data is less well advanced.
Thus, the primary goal that ties together the two main chapters of this dissertation, is to develop dynamical approaches for better capturing the true process that underlies count data. Typically, the statistical dependence in the underlying process can be defined through a mathematical graph consisting of nodes (vertices) and edges. Nodes represent individuals or objects, while edges represent the (dependence) relationships between them. Mathematical graphs can be further divided into different classes based on the properties of their edges and the paths formed by edges (e.g., Lauritzen, 1996). In this dissertation, we use graphs that define spatio-temporal dependence (Chapter 2) and temporal dependence (Chapter 3).
Specifically, we start with spatio-temporal count data in the field of non-contagious disease mapping, namely, yearly sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) information, from 1979 to 1984, for the counties of North Carolina. These data have been analyzed before as temporally aggregated spatial data (Cressie and Chan, 1989). We incorporate the new temporal aspect by presenting a spatio-temporal model from which optimal smoothing of SIDS rates can be derived. Specifically, we use a Bayesian hierarchical statistical model (BHM) with a hidden dynamical Markov random field and extra-Poisson variability. The graph arises by evolving the Markov random field via an autoregressive matrix. Potential confounding of sources of variability is avoided by calibrating the extra-Poisson variability with the microscale variation in an approximate Gaussian model.
We also consider temporal (but non-spatial) (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Noel Cressie (Advisor); Desheng Liu (Committee Member); Laura Kubatko (Committee Member)
Subjects: Statistics