PhD, University of Cincinnati, 2023, Pharmacy: Pharmaceutical Sciences
Introduction: Demand forecasting is a challenge which requires relevant data and advanced statistical procedures to address new growth and other opportunities. On the pharmacy perspective, if the inventory is high, patients will always have their medication in stock, but it will increase the inventory holding and storage costs of medications as well as increase the chance of a medication reach its expiration date. Even though low inventory may generate savings on inventory holding cost and storage costs, it may also increase the chances of stock-outs, when a medication is not available to patients. Thus, optimizing the demand forecasting system would financially benefit any pharmacy. The present study applied analytical methods to the demand forecasting of the top-ten most-prescribed medications in a specialty pharmacy and assessed the impact of weather conditions in the demand of four migraine medications.
Methods: This research was a collaboration with the James L. Winkle College of Pharmacy, the University of Cincinnati Medical Center, LLC (UC Health Specialty Pharmacy), and the Advanced Research Computing Center. The data consisted of 26 months of pre-recorded real-world dispensing data of the top-ten most prescribed medications: Aimovig, Ajovy, Biktarvy, Cellcept, Emgality, Enbrel, Epidiolex, Nurtec ODT, Prograf, and Temodar. The data of the most-prescribed medication in the pharmacy was preprocessed and deployed into AWS Amazon Forecasting and Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Studio. The effectiveness of the demand forecasting in the pharmacy was determined by either good or high accuracy metrics. After preprocessing the data, the variables considered for the forecasting models were monthly demand and the date of each medication purchase. The forecasting methods used were ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average, and LSTM (Long Short-term Memory).
Results: The best-performing models were ARIM (open full item for complete abstract)
Committee: Alex Lin Ph.D. (Committee Chair); Andrew Eisenhart Ph.D. (Committee Member); Bingfang Yan D.V.M. Ph.D. (Committee Member); Xiaodong Jia Ph.D. (Committee Member); Jianfei (Jeff) Guo Ph.D. (Committee Member)
Subjects: Pharmaceuticals