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Explaining Presidential Approval: Persona Versus “Real World” Explanations

Roeder, Mark A.
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1100811491

Abstract Details

2004, PhD, University of Cincinnati, Arts and Sciences : Political Science.
Despite providing numerous plausible explanations of presidential approval, particularly how it changes over time, the research literature has significant deficiencies. These include the following: (1) over-reliance on aggregate-level research; (2) lack of a comprehensive model to determine which factors best explain presidential approval; (3) assumption of constancy in the meaning of the presidential approval question, such that the potential for change in approval being merely a reflection of change in the meaning of the presidential approval question has not been seriously considered; and (4) the assumption that measures of perceptions of the president as a person and his job performance are just two sides of the same coin, resulting in little consideration of perceptions of presidential persona as a key factor in explaining presidential approval. This dissertation addresses these deficiencies. By using data from National Election Studies in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000, we test, directly and indirectly, a comprehensive model of approval at the individual level, including perceptions of economic and foreign relations performance, party identification, socio-demographics, and perception of presidential persona. Our model essentially combines some of the key conventional explanations with one rival explanation. Tests of it show that the most important explanation of presidential approval is one’s perception of presidential persona. This holds true on overall approval as well as approval of the president’s handling of economics and foreign relations. We probed the matter further, and found change in presidential approval to vary rather consistently with change in perception of presidential persona, as measured by the favorability rating. In addition to the tests of our model, we considered a second rival explanation of presidential approval, change in the meaning of the presidential approval question. By presenting indirect evidence, we demonstrate the likelihood of change in approval being merely a reflection of change in the meaning of the approval question, which alters the ingredients of evaluation of the president. This dissertation makes a key contribution to our understanding of presidential approval by determining more conclusively what is the best explanation of approval, and providing strong evidence, both direct and indirect, supporting our rival explanations of presidential approval.
Dr. George Bishop (Advisor)
218 p.
Political Science, General
presidential approval

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Roeder, M. A. (2004). Explaining Presidential Approval: Persona Versus “Real World” Explanations [Doctoral dissertation, University of Cincinnati]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1100811491

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Roeder, Mark. Explaining Presidential Approval: Persona Versus “Real World” Explanations. 2004. University of Cincinnati, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1100811491.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Roeder, Mark. "Explaining Presidential Approval: Persona Versus “Real World” Explanations." Doctoral dissertation, University of Cincinnati, 2004. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1100811491

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

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© 2004, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by University of Cincinnati and OhioLINK.