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Climate Volatility and Conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

Saraswati, Sowdamini
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1597929618692364

Abstract Details

2020, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Political Science.
Do fluctuations in climate spur violence? Across a variety of stakeholders, there is an intuitive expectation that climate factors influence conflict in vulnerable areas. While existing research suggests that there might be a relationship between climate and conflict, the exact linkage between the two remains an open question. Contemporary research in this area suffers from three main gaps: it often uses incomplete measures for climate that generate unreliable results; many studies employ statistical methods that do not accurately model the underlying data structure of the conflict outcome; and most studies use theoretical models of conflict participation that cannot account for variation at the micro-level. To address these gaps, this dissertation leverages spatially disaggregated climate data, original data collected during fieldwork in Uganda, and improved modeling strategies to explore the links between climate and conflict at the macro, meso, and micro levels. I propose a coherent theoretical framework through which we can understand how climate volatility impacts individual decision-making and drive violence. I argue that climate volatility heightens feelings of uncertainty among small-holder farmers; discomfort with feelings of uncertainty pushes individuals to try and seek certainty in a variety of ways. One way to find certainty, although not the only one, is to align with social groups that can offer psycho-social and economic benefits to membership. Armed groups and micro-finance social groups are examples of social groups that benefit from this certainty seeking behavior. Individual efforts to reduce uncertainty results in a larger pool of potential supporters and recruits for social groups, which can lead to the occurrence of violence. As the pace of anthropogenic climate change accelerates and uncertainty increases, a nuanced understanding of the climate-conflict relationship is critical for protecting those most at risk. Clarifying the links between climate, individual decision-making, and recruitment into social groups, can help generate more impactful policies to protect vulnerable households and decrease violence in the future.
Philipp Rehm, PhD (Committee Chair)
Christopher Gelpi, PhD (Committee Member)
Amanda Robinson, PhD (Committee Member)
157 p.
Political Science
climate change; political violence; uncertainty; risk; social policy; economic uncertainty; climate volatility; armed groups; social groups; violent organizations; recruitment; micro-finance groups; insecurity; uncertainty-identity theory; agriculture

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Saraswati, S. (2020). Climate Volatility and Conflict in sub-Saharan Africa [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1597929618692364

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Saraswati, Sowdamini. Climate Volatility and Conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. 2020. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1597929618692364.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Saraswati, Sowdamini. "Climate Volatility and Conflict in sub-Saharan Africa." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1597929618692364

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1597929618692364
109
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This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.