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National Security Policy Complexity: An Analysis of U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Program Effects on Political Terror

Hightower, Rudolph L, II
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8157-6498
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1512058156407646

Abstract Details

2017, Doctor of Philosophy, Ohio State University, Public Policy and Management.
This dissertation examined whether participation in US Defense Security Cooperation (DSC) programs leads to reductions in a regime’s willingness to inflict political terror such as extrajudicial killing, torture, disappearances, and political imprisonment. Two objectives framed the research: first, to identify structural factors that give rise to political terror, and second, to assess the efficacy of non-kinetic US intervention policies in allied nations. Though DSC programs are widely studied, the programs have been primarily evaluated in output terms such as dollars (Foreign Military Sales), the number of foreign officers trained (International Military Education and Training), and the number and cost of engagement events (National Guard State Partnership Program; SPP). To advance knowledge on DSC programs in outcome terms, this research started by recreating the key components of Poe and Tate (1990, 1994) causal frameworks on personal integrity rights. The initial objectives were to confirm or refute predictor variable results and to determine if the Poe and Tate-derived Political Terror Scale (PTS) was an appropriate measure to evaluate the efficaciousness of DSC programs. Next, the research expanded to include both a 167-country global time-sensitive cross-sectional (TSCS) analysis and a 46-country regional TSCS analysis using the US Geographic Combatant Commander Areas of Responsibilities (AORs) as its country-by-country delineation. Data collection began by creating the Rebuilding Failed and Weak States Dataset (RFWS Dataset) which included extensive data on a myriad of variables theorized to influence political terror. The RFWS Dataset covered 20 years from 1993-2012 plus four years 1989-1992 for variable lag effects. The PTS and the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (FSI) were the dependent variables since they represent globally respected indices of political terror and human rights abuses. Results validated the extant literature’s conclusions that the three structural factor variables 1) levels of democratization, 2) economic growth, and 3) recent civil and international war experiences continue to be the most reliable political terror predictors. Results from 12 regression models also showed DSC program influence as consistently weak, and at best, inconsistently statistically significant. Though senior US leaders frequently boast of DSC program intervention successes, this research found no consistent empirical evidence to support their positive pronouncements. Effective and efficient delivery of DSC intervention outputs do not necessarily correspond to similarly effective and efficient political terror outcomes. Also included was an exploratory review of over 400 SPP program archives. System Dynamics non-linear modeling and simulation techniques was used to create a conceptual model that illustrated the adaptive capacity of a State Partnership Program. Results further showed that there is a strong possibility that investments in training foreign military officers may lead to the desirable effect of a lower likelihood of political terror. The dissertation’s overarching recommendation is that senior US leaders need significantly more data collection on the specific nature of various DSC programs. Armed with new, robust datasets, DSC programs can be analyzed, evaluated, and improved not solely based on easily quantifiable outputs, but rather, based on verifiable outcomes that influence the democracy-strengthening behavioral outcomes of our partner nations.
Trevor Brown (Committee Chair)
227 p.
Military Studies; Public Administration; Public Policy
National Security; Political Terror; State Partnership Program; SPP; System Dynamics

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Hightower, II, R. L. (2017). National Security Policy Complexity: An Analysis of U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Program Effects on Political Terror [Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1512058156407646

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Hightower, II, Rudolph. National Security Policy Complexity: An Analysis of U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Program Effects on Political Terror. 2017. Ohio State University, Doctoral dissertation. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1512058156407646.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Hightower, II, Rudolph. "National Security Policy Complexity: An Analysis of U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Program Effects on Political Terror." Doctoral dissertation, Ohio State University, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1512058156407646

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

osu1512058156407646
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This open access ETD is published by The Ohio State University and OhioLINK.