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Testing the Abstractedness Account of Base-Rate Neglect, and the Representativeness Heuristic, Using Psychological Distance

Branch, Jared
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8888-1305
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1490023670757555

Abstract Details

2017, Master of Arts (MA), Bowling Green State University, Psychology.
Decision-makers neglect prior probabilities, or base-rates, when faced with problems of Bayesian inference (e.g. Bar-Hillel, 1980; Kahneman & Tversky, 1972, 1973; Nisbett and Borgida 1975). Judgments are instead made via the representativeness heuristic, in which a probability judgment is made by how representative its most salient features are (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972). Research has shown that base-rate neglect can be lessened by making individual subsets amenable to overall superset extraction (e.g. Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995; Evans et al. 2000; Evans et al. 2002; Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). In addition to nested sets, psychological distance should change the weight afforded to base-rate information. Construal Level Theory (Trope & Liberman, 2010) proposes that psychological distances—a removal from the subjective and egocentric self—result in differential information use. When we are proximal to an event we focus on its concrete aspects, and distance from an event increases our focus on its abstract aspects. Indeed, previous research has shown that being psychologically distant from an event increases the use of abstract and aggregate information (Burgoon, Henderson, & Wakslak, 2013; Ledgerwood, Wakslak, & Wang, 2010), although these results have been contradicted (Braga, Ferreira, & Sherman, 2015). Over two experiments I test the idea that psychological distance increases base-rate use. In Experiment 1 I attempt to partially replicate previous research that indicates temporal psychological distance increases the use of the representativeness heuristic (Braga et al., 2015); that is, actually increases base-rate neglect. In Experiment 2 I tested this effect in problems of Bayesian inference, using the standard mammography (Eddy, 1982) and lawyers and engineers (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973) problems. My results provide preliminary, converging evidence that both social and temporal psychological distances increase the use of base-rate information.
Richard Anderson (Advisor)
Scott Highhouse (Committee Member)
Yiwei Chen (Committee Member)
48 p.
Psychology
Construal level theory; judgment and decision-making; base-rate neglect; representativeness heuristic

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Branch, J. (2017). Testing the Abstractedness Account of Base-Rate Neglect, and the Representativeness Heuristic, Using Psychological Distance [Master's thesis, Bowling Green State University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1490023670757555

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Branch, Jared. Testing the Abstractedness Account of Base-Rate Neglect, and the Representativeness Heuristic, Using Psychological Distance . 2017. Bowling Green State University, Master's thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1490023670757555.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Branch, Jared. "Testing the Abstractedness Account of Base-Rate Neglect, and the Representativeness Heuristic, Using Psychological Distance ." Master's thesis, Bowling Green State University, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1490023670757555

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

bgsu1490023670757555
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This open access ETD is published by Bowling Green State University and OhioLINK.