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ETD Abstract Container

Abstract Header

An Analysis of the Effect of Early Season Winning Percentage on Final Regular Season Winning Percentage

Emily, Martin M
http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=auhonors155680603178294

Abstract Details

2019, Bachelor of Science, Ashland University, Mathematics/Computer Science.
Mathematicians are actively trying to quantify many aspects of one of Americas favorite pastimes, sports, through various types of analysis. In this project, we will be answering the question, "How does early season winning percentage affect final regular season winning percentage?" focusing on theoretical probability. This question is an example of a conditional probability, the probability that an event occurs given another event occurs. We break down our general question into three different cases. First, we look at the case of a team having a constant probability of winning each game. Then we look at the case of a team having two different probabilities of winning each game, one for its first part of the season and one for its second part. Finally, we look at our most general case of a team having a different probability of winning each game. While these results can be generally applied to any sport and any league, after exploring our question with theoretical probabilities, we compare our theoretical results to statistics from the 1978 to 2017 seasons of the NFL.
Christopher Swanson, PhD (Advisor)
Gordon Swain, PhD (Other)
50 p.
Applied Mathematics; Mathematics; Statistics
Mathematics; Sports, probability, NFL, Statistics, Winning Percentage, Early Season, Fast Start, Strong Start, Total Wins, General Formula

Recommended Citations

Citations

  • Emily, M. M. (2019). An Analysis of the Effect of Early Season Winning Percentage on Final Regular Season Winning Percentage [Undergraduate thesis, Ashland University]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=auhonors155680603178294

    APA Style (7th edition)

  • Emily, Martin. An Analysis of the Effect of Early Season Winning Percentage on Final Regular Season Winning Percentage. 2019. Ashland University, Undergraduate thesis. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center, http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=auhonors155680603178294.

    MLA Style (8th edition)

  • Emily, Martin. "An Analysis of the Effect of Early Season Winning Percentage on Final Regular Season Winning Percentage." Undergraduate thesis, Ashland University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=auhonors155680603178294

    Chicago Manual of Style (17th edition)

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© 2019, all rights reserved.
This open access ETD is published by Ashland University Honors Theses and OhioLINK.