▼ Qiang et al. (2001) successfully predicted 100 earthquakes in the Western Pacific Rimincluding China, Japan, Taiwan, and Philippine, using a temperature anomaly method. Their model is based on a predicted increase of ground temperatures in the lower atmosphere from 2 to 8 days before an earthquake of with a Richter Scale magnitude of 5 or greater. Mixed gases, such as CO2 and CH4, in different ratios under the action of a transient electric field, cause the temperature of the lower atmosphere to increase up to 6 °C, while solar radiation only increases temperature by 3 °C. The authors detected the thermal anomalies using ground-based evidence and thermal infrared anomalies in METEOSAT thermal infrared image data. Despite their apparent success at predicting the earthquakes, they did not compare their prediction with the natural rate of occurrence in the area, which experiences an earthquake of Richter magnitude greater than 4 every week. In order to evaluate the apparent success of Qiang et al's. (2001) method, a study was undertaken to compare their predictions to the natural occurrence of earthquakes within the region. Qiang et al's. (2001) predictions were compared to earthquakes in the Chinese and United States Geological Survey earthquake database using a specific area, magnitude and time (SMT) analysis. The Chinese database shows 81% of the predicted earthquake epicenters occurred out of SMT window whereas, the USGS earthquake database shows 88% of the predicted earthquake epicenters occurred out of the SMT window. The expected value and Poisson probability of the 12% (occurred in the SMT window) of the earthquake predictions show 75% of those are significant (0-10% expected and 0-0.1 Poisson probability value)significant, and 25% (25-50% expected and 0.1 to 0.25 Poisson probability value) are moderately significant. It is clearly seen that more than 80% earthquakes occurred outside the predicted window. Thus, the ability of Qiang et al's. (2007) method to predict earthquake epicenters can be called into question. Advisors/Committee Members: Vincent, Robert.

▼ Methods were developed to locate and characterize fracture networks within carbonate bedrock and glacial overburden of northwest Ohio using seismic data collected in radial and grid arrangements. Two study areas were chosen to isolate the desired targets: a site with less than 1 m of overburden for bedrock fractures, and a site with over 10 m of overburden for overburden fractures. Data were collected with a Geometrics SmartSeis 24 channel Seismograph using a hammer as an energy source. Three methods were developed and evaluated, each of which is based on recognizable phenomena associated with the propagation of seismic energy across a discontinuity: arrival time delays, diffracted waves resulting from seismic wave scatter, and amplitude attenuation anomalies. Each of these methods was tested and confirmed with control surveys done over a bedrock pavement containing several fractures. The location and orientation of fracture traces were identified by noting the location(s) of fractures on individual seismic profiles, as determined by one or more of the three methods, and connecting them with fracture locations on adjacent profiles. The bedrock was found to have dominant fracture trends of 094° , 040° - 055°, and 122° - 135°. The overburden was found to have dominant fracture trends of 082° and 030° - 045°. These results are similar to those of Nolan (2000) and Dean et al. (1991). The overall success of the three methods used in conjunction with one another has proven to be quite useful. However, the results produced from the use of amplitude attenuation anomalies appear to be much more robust and alleviate much of the bias produced with the arrival-time delay and diffraction methods. Additionally, the radial arrangement of geophones proved to show better linear agreement from line-to-line then the grid arrangement. The overall success with using seismic methods to locate and characterize fracture networks within the subsurface has proven to be both cost and time-efficient, and when used in conjunction with other geophysical methods, can be an essential exploration tool. Advisors/Committee Members: Onasch, Charles M.